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PHEVs produce almost 5x greater global warming emissions than official data show, as per a new report.

Widening Gap In Official and Real-World Emissions

Statistics reveals that PHEVs emit only one-fifth less CO₂ than conventional gas and diesel cars, based on research conducted by a non-profit group. This contrasts sharply with laboratory tests, which assumed a three-quarters reduction in pollution.

Analysts examined data from onboard fuel consumption monitors of 800,000 cars sold in the EU between 2021 and 2023. The team found that real-world CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times greater than official estimates, up from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Real-world CO2 output are rising, while lab-reported emissions are falling,” said a senior analyst participating in the study. “That discrepancy is widening and creates a significant problem. As a result, PHEVs pollute almost as much as gasoline cars.”

Key Factors Driving the Emissions Gap

Analysts attributed the majority of the difference to inflated estimates of the “utility factor” – the ratio of miles travelled in battery power compared to total distance. The team determined that only 27% of travel was done in EV mode, whereas official assumptions assumed 84%.

Additionally, when running in electric mode, emission levels were significantly higher than official estimates. That occurred because EV motors were insufficiently powerful sufficient to operate independently, leading to combustion motors burning fossil fuels for almost one-third of the distance covered in EV mode.

Policy and Financial Implications

According to calculations, the lowballing of PHEV CO2 output enabled four major automaker groups to avoid over €5bn in fines from 2021 and 2023, by falsely simplifying compliance with European Union average fleet CO₂ standards.

Additionally, drivers of PHEVs could pay approximately €500 more per year in operating costs than is assumed under laboratory tests.

“The strong claims that automakers often promote about their plug-in hybrid cars are clearly way off the truth,” stated a automotive analyst. “Buyers are being misled into thinking that by buying a PHEV, they are benefiting the environment and saving money. In reality, PHEVs are little better than standard gas and diesel vehicles in terms of fuel consumption, CO₂ emissions, and operating costs.”

Political Discussion and Automotive Pressure

Plug-in hybrid cars have lately been drawn again into political debates as carmakers have lobbied the EU to relax CO₂ targets. A proposed ban on sales of new internal combustion vehicles in 2035 has faced heavy lobbying from the automotive industry and resistance from EU countries with large automotive manufacturing.

Some senior officials have proposed plug-in hybrids as a possible “compromise” solution to include in the legislation.

One external energy economics expert, who was unaffiliated with the study, called the analysis a “highly valuable addition” after years in which parts of the car sector claimed there was too little information to properly evaluate actual emissions.

“These findings show, without question, that the difference between official and real-world PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions is much, much greater than for gasoline or conventional vehicles,” they said. “Any policy adjustments concerning PHEVs should be implemented with utmost caution and in the light of this data.”